1. 5

    @HansR
    ligt er aan wie je bedoelt. De League of Nations die van dit gebied één land maakte, de bruut Saddam Hoessein maar de situatie wel “stabiel” hield, Bush die de boel destabiliseerde, of de shiite/sunni death squads die stabilisatie tegenhouden en moorden? Welke actie bedoel je? Je vind toch niet echt dat er één actie aan de grondslag ligt van al deze doden?

  2. 9

    Er zijn maar weinig echt inhoudelijke kritieken op de studie (tenminste ik kon er maar weinig vinden).
    Kwam wel deze tegen: http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2006/10/11/135644/20

    Kern van de kritiek: Als je extrapoleert is de belangrijkste vraag of de ondervraagden/de samples representatief zijn en of ze evenredig naar het totaal genomen zijn.

    Hier zijn blijkbaar wel wat kanttekeningen bij te plaatsen:

    First, the most violent governorates are relatively oversampled. The Sunni governorates were sampled 1:450,000; the mixed ethnicity governorates sampled 1:532,000; the Kurdish governorates 1:626,000 and the Shia’ governorates 1:660,000. Violence is far higher in the Sunni and mixed-ethnicity governorates, because the fight between the US and the insurgency is in primarily Sunni areas, and the civil war is primarily in mixed ethnicity areas. Violence is lower in Shia’ areas and very low in Kurdish areas.

    The populations in the Sunni and mixed ethnicity governorates may be slightly overestimated.

    Violence is highly unequally distributed within governorates, both geographically and according to ethnic community. If there appears to be an unintentional sampling bias toward the most violent governorates, there could also be a trend to sample the more violent locations within each governorate. The report states that clusters were selected randomly, but the locations of those clusters are really important for assessing accuracy. For example, the study only sampled one cluster in Kirkuk (Tammim). If you survey a mixed-ethnicity neighborhood near the center of the city, the mortality rate would be sky high, among the highest in Iraq. If you measured an ethnically homogenous neighborhood in the city, the rate would be moderate to high. If you measured an ethnically homogenous village west or south of Kirkuk, the rate would be very variable from relatively high to low. If you measure a town or village in the east of the province, the rate would be negligible. It seems very hard to get an accurate reading on Kirkuk from one cluster.