Brief aan Vladimir Poetin

ANALYSE - After a week in Russia I concluded that Russia is very stable – perhaps too stable. President Vladimir Putin appears to want little political or economic reform, lest it lead to instability. Nevertheless, divisions are appearing in his entourage: some favour clamping down hard on the opposition, while others counsel softer tactics. Sometimes Putin backs one group, sometimes the other. On foreign policy, too, Putin seems to have two faces. The pragmatic Putin wants to work with the US in dealing with common problems. But another Putin views the US as a hostile power that is trying to destabilise Russia, and is happy to do things – like sheltering the fugitive Edward Snowden – that infuriate it.

In Moscow, both opposition leaders and the more liberal government officials agree that the need for political and economic change is greater than ever, but that the chances of serious reform are close to zero. After mass demonstrations in the winter of 2011/12, optimists thought the regime would attempt to win back the support of the middle classes by modernising the country’s governance. But these days nobody expects much to change. 
Russia’s leaders worry that big economic or political reforms could upset vested interests, create losers and perhaps strengthen the opposition. The government has in fact attempted some reforms of the university, school and healthcare systems, in order to save money, but these have been unpopular. Reform of the pension system – which would mean curbing pension rights – has been mooted for over a decade but frequently put off. There always seems to be an excuse for postponing major reform.