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Quote du Jour | De consequenties van aangifte

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Als ik later de politie bel, zeggen ze dat ik een informatiegesprek krijg: ,,Om de consequenties voor jou in kaart te brengen als je echt aangifte doet.” Daarna moet ik verplicht twee weken bedenktijd uitzitten voordat ik aangifte mag doen.

Journaliste Rosa Timmer werd een tijdje terug in een bar van achterlangs eens even stevig in het kruis gegrepen. De dader zag in haar zomerjurkje kennelijk een uitnodiging om handtastelijk te worden.

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Quote du Jour | Lords of Finance

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In his Pulitzer-Prize-winning book, Lords of Finance, the economist Liaquat Ahamad tells the story of how four central bankers, driven by staunch adherence to the gold standard, “broke the world” and triggered the Great Depression. Today’s central bankers largely share a new conventional wisdom – about the benefits of loose monetary policy. Are monetary policymakers poised to break the world again?

Alexander Friedman schetst hoe financiële markten wereldwijd haarscheuren vertonen: levensverzekeraars en pensioenfondsen hebben grote moeite om aan de benodigde revenuen te komen, en gaan daardoor noodgedwongen steeds risicovollere beleggingen aan.

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Quote du Jour | Your ‘opinion’ is worthless

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I spend far more time arguing on the Internet than can possibly be healthy, and the word I’ve come to loath more than any other is “opinion”. Opinion, or worse “belief”, has become the shield of every poorly-conceived notion that worms its way onto social media.

There’s a common conception that an opinion cannot be wrong. My dad said it. Hell, everyone’s dad probably said it and in the strictest terms it is true. However, before you crouch behind your Shield of Opinion you need to ask yourself two questions.

1. Is this actually an opinion?

2. If it is an opinion how informed is it and why do I hold it?

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Quote du Jour | Geen wezenlijke doorbraken

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‘Er is heel veel bereikt,’ zegt Steels. ‘Maar de laatste dertig jaar zijn er geen wezenlijke doorbraken meer geweest. Natuurlijk, de nieuwe toepassingen zijn indrukwekkend. Dat komt doordat computers veel krachtiger zijn geworden, verbonden zijn met elkaar, en veel meer data tot hun beschikking hebben. Daardoor is nu van alles mogelijk. Maar als je kijkt naar de onderliggende intelligentie: die is hetzelfde gebleven. Die is gebaseerd op algoritmen (instructies, programma’s, red.) die er dertig jaar geleden ook al waren.’

Waar veel nieuwe toepassingen op neerkomen: patronen herkennen in grote hoeveelheden data. Dankzij het zogeheten machine learning kunnen computers die patronen zelf ontdekken, zonder dat programmeurs aangeven hoe een patroon eruit ziet.

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Quote du Jour | Uitzondering en uitsluiting

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In een tijd waarin westerse politici steeds harder op zoek moeten naar een verhaal, en waarin de Europese grensbewaking lijkt op die van een kat in het nauw, is Agamben een van de meest prikkelende commentatoren die je kunt treffen. Eind jaren negentig breekt de Italiaan met Homo sacer internationaal door. Hierin presenteert hij een volledig originele analyse van de westerse politiek – vergezeld van het nodige schokeffect: moderne politiek is een aaneenschakeling van uitzonderingstoestanden en uitsluitingsmechanismen en kent dezelfde juridische structuur als het concentratiekamp. Zijn analyse is niets ontziend: een construct, dat zorgvuldig is weggestopt op de zwartste bladzijden van de geschiedenis, staat ineens model voor moderne democratieën.

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Quote du Jour | Prepare for a two-speed Europe

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Europeans should draw the consequences: prepare for a two-speed Europe, because this will inevitably be the result of further integration. They should create a constitutional arrangement for the EU that can accommodate one highly integrated core, the eurozone, and one less integrated group without the euro, ideally led by the UK. And they should expect that not all eurozone members will want to take that step, so some will leave the group even before the new setup emerges.

Within the eurozone, consequences will again follow. If the EU establishes a political union—the core of which will be a fiscal union, a unified budgetary process, a transfer union, and partly harmonized tax regimes—this entity will require new ways of legitimizing itself. Indirect mandates (such as those that national governments bring to the European Council when they legislate there) or half-baked ones (such as the European Parliament claims for itself) will no longer suffice to root legislative and executive action in the will of the people.

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Quote du Jour | Try talking economics in the Eurogroup

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It is well known that Varoufakis was taken off Greece’s negotiating team shortly after Syriza took office; he was still in charge of the country’s finances but no longer in the room. It’s long been unclear why. In April, he said vaguely that it was because “I try and talk economics in the Eurogroup” – the club of 19 finance ministers whose countries use the Euro – “which nobody does.” I asked him what happened when he did.

“It’s not that it didn’t go down well – there was point blank refusal to engage in economic arguments. Point blank. You put forward an argument that you’ve really worked on, to make sure it’s logically coherent, and you’re just faced with blank stares. It is as if you haven’t spoken. What you say is independent of what they say. You might as well have sung the Swedish national anthem – you’d have got the same reply.”

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Quote du Jour | Vlag

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“When you’re putting a flag on someone’s grave, to me it’s a little different from being racist. It’s more of a memorial.”

Lynn Westmoreland, Republikeins afgevaardigde uit Georgia, probeerde er gisteren een amendement door te krijgen om de confederatievlag te laten wapperen op nationale begraafplaatsen. Het voorstel haalde het niet, maar het debat over de vlag woedt in alle hevigheid door.

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Quote du Jour | Luddite fallacy

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The technology elite who are leading this revolution will reassure you that there is nothing to worry about because we will create new jobs just as we did in previous centuries when the economy transitioned from agrarian to industrial to knowledge-based. Tech mogul Marc Andreessen has called the notion of a jobless future a “Luddite fallacy,” referring to past fears that machines would take human jobs away. Those fears turned out to be unfounded because we created newer and better jobs and were much better off.

True, we are living better lives. But what is missing from these arguments is the timeframe over which the transitions occurred. The industrial revolution unfolded over centuries. Today’s technology revolutions are happening within years. We will surely create a few intellectually-challenging jobs, but we won’t be able to retrain the workers who lose today’s jobs. They will experience the same unemployment and despair that their forefathers did. It is they who we need to worry about.

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Quote du jour | Captured by an economic ideology

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There is a pattern here. For the ECB to act as a lender of last resort was impossible, and the only answer was yet more austerity – until that austerity had been put in place and OMT became possible. When the French government tried to meet deficit targets by raising taxes rather than cutting spending, they were told that this was the wrong kind of austerity. When it came to Quantitative Easing (QE) some were quite explicit – a problem with QE is that it might take some pressure off governments to undertake austerity and ‘reforms’. So perhaps only when the Syriza government has fallen and their successor agreed to more austerity and reforms will it turn out that the Troika can after all be flexible about restructuring debt.

One of the charges frequently made against opponents of austerity in the Eurozone is that we are really seeking the failure of the whole Euro project. The opposite is nearer the truth. The problem for the Euro project is that it has become captured by an economic ideology, and austerity is that ideology’s principle weapon. A self-confident and mature Eurozone would be able to tolerate diversity, rather than trying to crush any dissent. A Eurozone captured by an ideology will insist there is but one path, and that the imperative of austerity is too important to accommodate democratic wishes.

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Quote du Jour | The American Revolution was a mistake

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I’m reasonably confident a world where the revolution never happened would be better than the one we live in now, for three main reasons: slavery would’ve been abolished earlier, American Indians would’ve faced rampant persecution but not the outright ethnic cleansing Andrew Jackson and other American leaders perpetrated, and America would have a parliamentary system of government that makes policymaking easier and lessens the risk of democratic collapse.

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Quote du Jour | Hammering opponents of austerity

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Syriza’s fate will also be used to hammer opponents of austerity. Resisting the prevailing economic common sense of our time (it will be claimed) is demonstrably futile and self-defeating. Greece’s woes are the product of overspending, and so on. That the likes of Goldman Sachs helped to massage Greece’s books to allow it to enter the eurozone in the first place will be forgotten. The irresponsible lending of German and French banks will be forgotten, too.

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