Tweespalt | Klimaat in Australië

The Age, 31 mei '14 Guardian, 2 juni '14 The Climate Commission has gone. The carbon tax is to be rescinded. The Australian Renewable Energy Agency is to be abolished. The promise of a "Million Solar Roofs" is broken. And in what can only be described as an ideological move, the Abbott government introduced bills to abolish the Clean Energy Finance Corporation, despite it making a profit last year. The Prime Minister has declared war on the Australian renewable energy industry, the environment and science itself. Australia has experienced its hottest two years on record and high temperatures are set to continue through winter in a clear sign of climate change, a report warns. May 2012 to April 2014 was the hottest 24-month period ever recorded in Australia, but that is likely to be eclipsed by the two years between June 2012 and May 2014, according to the Climate Commission's latest report, Abnormal Autumn. ... The Climate Council is a crowd-funded, independent organisation created by the members of the former Climate Commission, which was axed by the Coalition government when it came to power in 2013. Politiek in Australië doet niet aan feiten. Maar feiten doen niet aan politiek. Dus dat wordt op de blaren zitten.

Door: Foto: Sargasso achtergrond wereldbol
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Zuid-Australië nadert 50% hernieuwbare elektriciteit

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De meeste aandacht in Nederland gaat uit naar de voortgang van de energietransitie in Duitsland. Ondertussen worden aan de andere kant van de aardbol in kolenminnend Australië ook duurzame successen bereikt. Energy Post heeft een lezenswaardige beschrijving van de situatie in Zuid-Australië,  waar hernieuwbare elektriciteit onderhand 50% van de stroom levert en er van de 2 kolencentrales die er waren nog maar 1 op halve kracht draait.

Lezen: Bedrieglijk echt, door Jona Lendering

Mededeling

Bedrieglijk echt gaat over papyrologie en dan vooral over de wedloop tussen wetenschappers en vervalsers. De aanleiding tot het schrijven van het boekje is het Evangelie van de Vrouw van Jezus, dat opdook in het najaar van 2012 en waarvan al na drie weken vaststond dat het een vervalsing was. Ik heb toen aangegeven dat het vreemd was dat de onderzoekster, toen eenmaal duidelijk was dat deze tekst met geen mogelijkheid antiek kon zijn, beweerde dat het lab uitsluitsel kon geven.

Foto: Karen Eliot (cc)

Australian carbon emission politics explained

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OPINIE - Have a look at the beautiful graph below, which depicts the main trends in Australian emissions and its promised emission reduction targets.

climate graph
Note: trajectories to the 2020 target range are illustrative.

The dotted orange line shows the amount of greenhouse gas that Australia’s economy produces. It depicts a steadily increasing line from 420 million tonnes in 1990 to 560 million tonnes today, projected to rise to 650 million tonnes in 2020 under a ‘business as usual scenario’. The blue line shows total emissions, which thus adds emissions from deforestation to the ‘economic emissions’.

The three straight lines at the end of the graph show Australia’s promises, and then in particular the -5% line that both parties have committed to. Its a beautifully informative graph, which I have used in several lectures the last few years. It is of course meant to shock the audience into rising to the challenge, but it is also very useful as a guide to discussing the politics of greenhouse emissions:

  • Actual economic emissions have more or less followed the ‘business as usual scenario’ in the last 20 years, despite several governments tinkering with wind-mills and ‘energy efficiency’.
  • The only reason that Australia now only emits slightly more than in 1990 is because forestry activities are included in the headline numbers (the blue line): there happened to be a lot of deforestation in the early 1990s. It would be much more proper, of course, to exclude this source: you won’t see this source in the reports of the International Energy Agency which calculates world emissions. Hence, a mere ‘accounting trick’, probably cooked up by some clever civil servant years ago, is keeping Australia in the ballpark of its promised reduction. And of course, another accounting trick is needed to exclude bush fires from ‘deforestation’. If you really want to pretend our ‘efforts’ look good, you can just look at the blue line without seeing the orange line and crow about the years with reduced emissions (such as is done here), but if one would look at economic emissions alone, then keeping the 5% reduction target would entail reducing the economic emissions between now and 2020 by about 40% relative to the ‘business as usual scenario’.
    • Foto: bram_souffreau (cc)

    Perspectives on bushfires in Australia

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    ANALYSE - Natuurrampen zijn big business in Australië. Paul Frijters biedt een aantal economische perspectieven.

    I remember the great bushfire in Canberra of 2003. I had only arrived with the family a week before and had just rented a nice house near the top of Mt Cook, right in the path of an enormous bushfire that ended up destroying hundreds of homes.

    The heat of that day was immense: 40 degrees and strong winds. Activity was similarly frantic. Warnings on the radio of how the seemingly impossible was truly happening: fires that broke all containment lines were converging on the capital. Barbecues got cancelled as everyone returned home to prepare: people feverishly cleaning out the gutters of their house to remove anything that would easily combust; people filling up their bathtubs to be able to quickly immerse themselves if needed; the ban on using hose-pipes suddenly being lifted as the importance of water conservation gave way to survival. Our neighbour, whom we never talked to before, or afterwards, was suddenly very chummy in the face of this imminent joint danger. Indeed, there was a palpable buzz about Canberra as people went through a shared emergency.

    I remember standing on top of Mt Cook, seeing the fires break more containment lines on their way to our neighbourhood. In the distance, we could see huge fire-arcs of hundreds of meters, via which whole trees, full of igniting oils, were whirled into the Southern suburbs, causing immense damage to people and property. One had to be in awe of that kind of destructive force, which simply seemed too great for humans to meaningfully oppose. One suddenly felt a bit silly, holding two hosepipes in one’s hand waiting for these huge fires to come! Luckily for my neighbourhood, the wind shifted just as the fires were about to hit us, with the cooler air streaming from the opposite direction effectively ending the tragedy. For months afterwards, family back in the Netherlands and the UK would ask whether there were any houses left in Canberra and whether we had been lucky. We had been.

    Lezen: Venus in het gras, door Christian Jongeneel

    Mededeling

    Op een vroege zomerochtend loopt de negentienjarige Simone naakt weg van haar vaders boerderij. Ze overtuigt een passerende automobiliste ervan om haar mee te nemen naar een afgelegen vakantiehuis in het zuiden van Frankrijk. Daar ontwikkelt zich een fragiele verstandhouding tussen de twee vrouwen.

    Wat een fijne roman is Venus in het gras! Nog nooit kon ik zoveel scènes tijdens het lezen bijna ruiken: de Franse tuin vol kruiden, de schapen in de stal, het versgemaaide gras. – Ionica Smeets, voorzitter Libris Literatuurprijs 2020.

    Foto: Sheila's (cc)

    Het EPD, Aussie-style | deel 2

    , door

    ANALYSE -  In Australië werkt het Elektronisch Patiëntendossier (EPD) door een gebrek aan visie, expertise en geld. Dat is een zegen voor het systeem, beargumenteert econoom Paul Frijters.

    I have watched the Australian effort, concentrated in the National E-health Transition Authority (NEHTA) from the sidelines and have been amazed at the difference in the Australian approach to the European or American approach. It is a quintessentially Australian approach to change that might just work.

    The key strengths of the NEHTA initiative are a lack of foresight, a lack of consultation, a lack of expertise, and a lack of money. Each of these is an enormous blessing in disguise when it comes to the problem at hand. Let me explain, for it is truly quite wondrous that these things should be strengths.

    Problems that might arise

    A lack of foresight in this area means that you don’t try to deal with all the problems that might arise. You essentially just do your best to guess the major blocks and then you improvise as the problems hit you. And the problems are stupendous, ranging from incompatible programming code to dysfunctional organisations who don’t want to play ball, emerging privacy issues, game-playing private contractors, opportunistic politicians, and high staff turnover.

    Foto: Sheila's (cc)

    Het EPD, Aussie-style | deel 1

    , door

    ANALYSE -  In Australië werkt het Elektronisch Patiëntendossier (EPD) door een gebrek aan visie, expertise en geld. Dat is een zegen voor het systeem, beargumenteert econoom Paul Frijters. Vandaag deel 1, morgen volgt deel 2.

    For fourteen months, Australia has had an electronic national health register. It has almost nothing in it, but the hope is that in years to come (when lots of people have registered) it will start to have all the information on someone’s health that floats around in the health industry. This includes discharge summaries, the history of medicine use, databases on allergies and conditions, payment histories, dental records, childhood illnesses, vaccination history, and treatment plans.

    This health register was initially championed by Tony Abbott when his party was last in power and he was the health minister, so now that he is the Prime Minister, its future looks safe for the next few years at least. Let me, as an interested but only average-informed health watcher, talk through the possibilities of this health register, the failures to have health registers in many countries, and the wondrous ways in which the Australian variety seems to have benefited and thrived from a lack of foresight, a lack of consultation, a lack of expertise, and a lack of money. It is somewhat unusual and incredible from the point of view of normal economic thinking about reform, but we seem to have a policy area here in which it seems an advantage to bumble along in the dark, rather than be well-prepared beforehand.

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    Australië verbiedt zonnebanken

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    Australië verbiedt het gebruik van zonnebanken. In 80% van de nieuwe kankergevallen per jaar gaat het om huidkanker. Daar zou het klimaat in Australië natuurlijk iets mee te maken kunnen hebben… Brazilië verbood eerder al het gebruik van zonnebanken, een aantal andere landen heeft het gebruik verboden voor jongeren onder de 18 jaar.

    Hoe zit dat eigenlijk in Nederland? De grootste keten van Nederland, Sundays, weert minderjarigen. Maar zijn ze per wet ook verboden onder de zonnebank te gaan?

    Lezen: De BVD in de politiek, door Jos van Dijk

    Mededeling

    Tot het eind van de Koude Oorlog heeft de BVD de CPN in de gaten gehouden. Maar de dienst deed veel meer dan spioneren. Op basis van nieuw archiefmateriaal van de AIVD laat dit boek zien hoe de geheime dienst in de jaren vijftig en zestig het communisme in Nederland probeerde te ondermijnen. De BVD zette tot tweemaal toe personeel en financiële middelen in voor een concurrerende communistische partij. BVD-agenten hielpen actief mee met geld inzamelen voor de verkiezingscampagne. De regering liet deze operaties oogluikend toe. Het parlement wist van niets.

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