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Jeroen Laemers

542 Artikelen
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Achtergrond: Jay Huang (cc)
Quote du Jour

Quote du jour | Political correctness

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Eén reden waarom Donald Trump – die overigens dezelfde politieke ruimte, namelijk economisch links én nationalistisch/autoritair, heeft ontdekt als onze eigen PVV – het momenteel goed doet onder het Republikeinse electoraat in de VS is dat hij er een handje van heeft af te geven op ‘political correctness’.

De opkomst van Trump is dan ook eigenlijk te wijten aan de alles doordringende, verstikkende politieke correctheid van ‘links’ van de afgelopen jaren, menen sommige Amerikaanse conservatieven die The Donald liever kwijt dan rijk zijn:

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Klijnsma doet aan creatief boekhouden

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Tenminste dat beweert D66-Kamerlid Steven van Weyenberg:

Begin juli stelt Jetta Klijnsma in een Kamerbrief dat er meer dan tienduizend extra banen voor mensen met een arbeidsbeperking zijn bijgekomen. Volgens Van Weyenberg telt de staatssecretaris banen mee van mensen die al een baan hadden. “Er zijn zo’n 6.000 mensen die gedetacheerd zijn vanuit de sociale werkplaats naar een regulier bedrijf. Dat is hartstikke mooi, maar dat telt niet mee. Deze mensen hadden immers al een baan.”

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JPMorgan Chase krijgt kleine boete

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JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N) has agreed to pay at least $125 million to settle probes by U.S. state and federal authorities that the bank sought to improperly collect and sell consumer credit card debt, according to people familiar with the matter.

En dat is natuurlijk niks vergeleken bij die 13 miljard dollar die het bedrijf in 2013 moest ophoesten.

Het is dus overduidelijk tijd voor een nieuwe salarisverhoging voor CEO Jamie Dimon!

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Chinese aandelenbeurzen fors in de min

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Na Griekenland, nu dit:

Chinese stock markets tumbled again on Wednesday as a range of government measures aimed at preventing a further nose dive in share prices had no impact.
The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 5.9%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell to close down almost 3%.

Within 10 minutes of trading on Wednesday morning, a wave of listed companies across China’s two stock markets had dropped by the daily limited of 10% and had their shares automatically suspended. About 1,400 companies, or more than half of those listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen – filed for a trading halt in an attempt to prevent further losses. This suspension is likely to last “until the market is stabilised and liquidity is returned to the market”, said Chen Jiahe, chief strategic analyst with Cinda Securities.

China’s securities regulator said there was “panic” in the stock market with irrational selling off increasing and “leading the stock market to a situation of intense liquidity”.

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‘Why Germany wants rid of Greece’

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Simon Wren-Lewis lijkt iets op het spoor te zijn:

Germany refuses to discuss debt relief with Greece, yet seems quite happy to see Greece leave the Eurozone, the inevitable consequence of which would be that Greece would obtain much greater debt relief through default. Talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face. What is driving Germany’s desperate need to rid itself of the Greek problem?

One possible answer is that Germany finds the truth about Greece too upsetting, too challenging. This is because since 2010 Greece has done most of what the Troika asked of it. In particular, changes in its government’s underlying primary budget balance (i.e. the degree of austerity enacted) have been greater, by a long distance, than any other European economy. For many outside Germany what has happened to Greece as a result is hardly surprising: austerity is contractionary, and austerity on steroids is ruinous. Yet Germany is a country where the ideas of Keynes, and therefore mainstream macroeconomics in the rest of the world, are considered profoundly wrong and are described as ‘Anglo-Saxon economics’. Greece then becomes a kind of experiment to see which is right: the German view, or ‘Anglo-Saxon economics’.

The results of the experiment are not to Germany’s liking. […] Confronting this reality has been too much for Germany. So instead it has created its fantasy, a fantasy that allows it to cast its failed experiment to one side, blaming the character of the patient.

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Griekenland zegt nee

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Het nee-kamp heeft een beslissende voorsprong genomen.

Volg het laatste nieuws en commentaar op het live-blog van The Guardian.

Er is inmiddels ook commentaar van Krugman, getiteld Europe Wins (u leest het goed):

Tsipras and Syriza have won big in the referendum, strengthening their hand for whatever comes next. But they’re not the only winners: I would argue that Europe, and the European idea, just won big — at least in the sense of dodging a bullet.

I know that’s not how most people see it. But think of it this way: we have just witnessed Greece stand up to a truly vile campaign of bullying and intimidation, an attempt to scare the Greek public, not just into accepting creditor demands, but into getting rid of their government. It was a shameful moment in modern European history, and would have set a truly ugly precedent if it had succeeded.

Quote du Jour

Quote du jour | Captured by an economic ideology

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There is a pattern here. For the ECB to act as a lender of last resort was impossible, and the only answer was yet more austerity – until that austerity had been put in place and OMT became possible. When the French government tried to meet deficit targets by raising taxes rather than cutting spending, they were told that this was the wrong kind of austerity. When it came to Quantitative Easing (QE) some were quite explicit – a problem with QE is that it might take some pressure off governments to undertake austerity and ‘reforms’. So perhaps only when the Syriza government has fallen and their successor agreed to more austerity and reforms will it turn out that the Troika can after all be flexible about restructuring debt.

One of the charges frequently made against opponents of austerity in the Eurozone is that we are really seeking the failure of the whole Euro project. The opposite is nearer the truth. The problem for the Euro project is that it has become captured by an economic ideology, and austerity is that ideology’s principle weapon. A self-confident and mature Eurozone would be able to tolerate diversity, rather than trying to crush any dissent. A Eurozone captured by an ideology will insist there is but one path, and that the imperative of austerity is too important to accommodate democratic wishes.

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Trojka: Griekse schulden onhoudbaar zelfs bij aanvaarding ‘hervormingen’

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Aldus een verzameling vertrouwelijke documenten waar The Guardian de hand op wist te leggen:

Greece would face an unsustainable level of debt by 2030 even if it signs up to the full package of tax and spending reforms demanded of it, according to unpublished documents compiled by its three main creditors.

The documents, drawn up by the so-called troika of lenders, support Greece’s argument that it needs substantial debt relief for a lasting economic recovery. They show that, even after 15 years of sustained strong growth, the country would face a level of debt that the International Monetary Fund deems unsustainable given Greece’s debt profile […].

The documents show that the IMF’s baseline estimate – the most likely outcome – is that Greece’s debt would still be 118% of GDP in 2030, even if it signs up to the package of tax and spending reforms demanded. That is well above the 110% which the IMF regards as sustainable […]

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Stiglitz over Griekenland: ‘Trojka weigert verantwoordelijkheid te nemen’

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Econoom en Nobelprijswinnaar Joseph Stiglitz schreef het volgende over de Griekse situatie:

Of course, the economics behind the programme that the “troika” (the European Commission, the European Central Bank, and the International Monetary Fund) foisted on Greece five years ago has been abysmal, resulting in a 25% decline in the country’s GDP. I can think of no depression, ever, that has been so deliberate and had such catastrophic consequences: Greece’s rate of youth unemployment, for example, now exceeds 60%.

It is startling that the troika has refused to accept responsibility for any of this or admit how bad its forecasts and models have been. But what is even more surprising is that Europe’s leaders have not even learned. The troika is still demanding that Greece achieve a primary budget surplus (excluding interest payments) of 3.5% of GDP by 2018.

Economists around the world have condemned that target as punitive, because aiming for it will inevitably result in a deeper downturn. Indeed, even if Greece’s debt is restructured beyond anything imaginable, the country will remain in depression if voters there commit to the troika’s target in the snap referendum to be held this weekend.

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‘Greece and Europe really aren’t that far apart on a deal’

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Nu de zaken in Griekenland flink uit de hand aan het lopen zijn, is misschien ook aardig om te kijken waarom de laatste verschillen niet konden worden overbrugd.

Matt O’Brien in The Washington Post:

Now it might be hard to believe, but Greece and Europe really aren’t that far apart on a deal. Europe wants Greece to cut its pensions more than it already has—which, in some cases, has been as much as 40 percent—but Greece only wants to cut them half as much and make up the rest with higher taxes on businesses. In other words, both sides agree how much austerity Athens should do, just not how it should do it. The problem, as it always has been, is the politics. Syriza insists that it has “red lines” over pension cuts it cannot cross, but Europe has quite literally drawn red lines through them and said, take it or leave it. This hardline stance is more about warning anti-austerity parties in Spain and Portugal that there’s nothing to be gained from challenging the continent’s budget-cutting status quo as it is about the €1.8 billion in pension cuts—not even a rounding error in the context of Europe’s economy—that it wants from Greece.

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Hooggerechtshof VS legaliseert homohuwelijk

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SCOTUS establishes a federal constitutional right to marriage for same-sex couples under the Equal Protection and Due Process clauses of the Fourteenth Amendment.

Met andere woorden: geen enkele ontsnappingsweg voor de wat minder verlichte staten om er lokaal nog wat aan te doen.

Nadat het Hooggerechtshof gisteren al weigerde de Affordable Care Act de nek om te draaien, duiken de lokale conservatives inmiddels al in de samenzweringstheorieën.

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‘De Grieken wijzen alles af’

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Zo kopt Trouw:

Rond 12.00 uur brak dit overleg op, zonder akkoord. “De Grieken wijzen alles af”, klonk het in Brussel. “De Grieken hebben alleen achterwaartse bewegingen gemaakt”, concludeerde de Duitse minister Wolfgang Schäuble.

Een net iets ander perspectief valt te lezen bij Krugman:

But given reports from the negotiations in Brussels, something must be said — namely, what do the creditors, and in particular the IMF, think they’re doing? […]

At this point it’s time to stop talking about “Graccident”; if Grexit happens it will be because the creditors, or at least the IMF, wanted it to happen.

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