Maar wie heeft nu gewonnen?
Greece seemingly gave a lot of ground on the language: the stuff about fiscal adjustment in line with the November 2012 Eurogroup is back in, which Germany will presumably claim represents a commitment to stay with the 4.5 percent primary surplus target. But Greece apparently is claiming that the agreement offers new flexibility, which means that it will assert that it has agreed to no such thing.
So we’re in a weird place: this looks like a defeat for Greece, but since nothing substantive was resolved, it’s only a defeat if the Greeks accept it as one; which means that nothing at all is clearly resolved. And that’s arguably a good outcome — time for Greece to get its act together.
I do find myself remembering an old joke, which slightly modified works for this situation: what do you get if you cross a godfather with a group of finance ministers? Someone who makes you an offer you can’t understand.
Maar de uitkomst – extra tijd – is hoe dan ook goed nieuws.
Opnieuw Krugman in een eerdere post:
Why do we need a time-out? Mainly because the new Greek government simply hasn’t had time to do its homework. This is not a criticism: it’s a new government, it’s outside the existing political establishment (because voters feel, with justification, that the establishment has failed), and Syriza doesn’t have a deep technocratic bench. Even with the best will in the world — and from what I hear, we are talking about well-intentioned people here — the Greeks can’t present a detailed proposal, decide exactly what they must do and can’t do, just yet. […]
Now, maybe after 60 or 90 days it would become clear that there is no possible deal, and Grexit it is. But we don’t know that.